The trend in life expectancy

Any analysis of mortality needs to be based on reliable estimates of age-specific mortality rates. In France, the complete annual life tables already published by INED for the nineteenth and twentieth centuries must be regularly updated. A special effort must be made to gather and validate the information on survival beyond 100 and even 110.

The 2001 publication by France Meslé and Jacques Vallin in the Données statistiques series summarises the historical reconstruction research that has made it possible to complete annual period and cohort life tables from 1806 to 1997, including a breakdown of the long-term mortality trend in France.

The tables, frequently used both inside and outside INED, need to be continuously updated. We have used this longitudinal series of life tables by sex and age to develop hypotheses about the mortality trend for INSEE’s projections. The series is useful for studying the trend of mortality in France and is a benchmark for use in comparative studies. We have compared trends in France and Japan with the less favourable trends in the United States and the Netherlands, particularly among elderly women. In the next few years, in addition to maintaining the database by regularly updating and enhancing the content, we will continue to use it to monitor mortality by sex and age especially at the oldest ages.

Any international comparison begins with data collection and formatting. France Meslé and Jacques Vallin are working on a database of existing life tables in developed countries. The base is still incomplete for some countries and in any case needs to be continuously updated.

INED is working with the data laboratory of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) and the Department of Demography at the University of California (Berkeley) to create a public-access web-based database: the Human Life-Table Database (www.lifetable.de). The database contains PDF copies of officially published life tables and downloadable data files with, for each life table, a standardized calculation of the seven conventional functions based on two functions from the published table. The online database, which currently covers about 50 countries, consists mainly of data for the twentieth century, with some data for the nineteenth century. It is constantly updated with new data.

Along with the Human Mortality Database and the Kannisto Database, the Human Life-Table Database is useful for the research project on maximum life expectancy. By combining the lowest risks of mortality by age observed at a given time in the most advanced countries, we can gain an idea of the potential life expectancy of a population enjoying such minimum risks. Life expectancy combining the lowest mortality rates in 1950 was exceeded by most of the countries included in the study in fewer than 25 years. The lowest mortality rate in 1975 is being exceeded today. To reflect variations in mortality within countries, a similar exercise combining the lowest mortality rates will be applied to the states of the United States.